天山北坡经济带生态系统服务评估及权衡协同关系研究

Study on Evaluation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-off Relationship in Economic Belt on Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains, Xingjiang

摘要:

为探究近年来新疆天山北坡经济带生态系统服务功能变化及其变化原因，分析权衡协同关系的动态规律，助力新疆天山北坡经济带在新时期实现新发展，基于土地利用数据，综合运用InVEST模型，研究了2010—2020年天山北坡经济带土地利用变化与4种典型生态系统服务功能之间的关系，并对生态系统服务功能进行了权衡协同关系分析。结果表明：①研究区生态系统服务中的水源涵养与土壤保持功能先增加后减少，分别下降了31.93×10⁸ m³与6.43×10⁸ t，碳储量无明显变化，生境质量评分保持在0.3左右，优秀面积减少1 833 km²；②研究区整体空间分布为西北高、东南低，各项生态系统服务功能高值区分布于山脉附近，以林地为主要土地利用类型；③多年来权衡关系为主导关系，协同关系存在于水源涵养与土壤保持以及碳储量与生境质量之间。综上，天山北坡经济带生态系统服务功能整体呈下降趋势，下降的原因主要是林地面积的减少和气候条件的改变，未来应适当增加林地面积，建立林地面积预警红线，并建立气象动态监测机制，以应对极端气象条件，促进天山北坡经济带生态系统服务功能的可持续发展。

Abstract:

In this study, the change trend of land use types was explored in the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains (EB-NSTN) from 2010 to 2020, the InVEST model was employed to assess spatial and temporal changes in water conservation, soil conservation, carbon storage, and habitat quality, and the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem service functions were analyzed. The results showed that the provision of ecosystem services related to water conservation and soil retention increased first and then decreased, with a reduction of 31.93×10⁸ m³ and 6.43×10⁸ t, respectively. Carbon storage showed no significant change. Habitat quality changed little and the score remained about 0.3, but the area of excellent quality habitats decreased by 1 833 km². The spatial distribution of ecosystem services generally was high in the northwest and low in the southeast, the high values were distributed near the mountains, with the forest land was the main land use type. For many years, trade-off dynamics predominantly featured trade-offs, with synergistic relationships were observed between water conservation and soil preservation, as well as between carbon storage and habitat quality. In conclusion, the ecosystem services of NS-NSTM are declining, primarily because of shrinking forest areas and changing climatic conditions. In the future, in order to foster the sustainable ecosystem service in this region, it is essential to expand the forest area with a warning size boundary, and establish a dynamic meteorological monitoring system to address extreme weather events.