基于马尔科夫模型的郑州市郊区多方案耕地保有量预测

On cropland prediction of Zhengzhou based on Markov Model in multi-projects

摘要:

以TM、ETM、SPOT-5等遥感影像和地形图为数据源，建立遥感解译标志进行人机交互解译获取1988、1997、2000、2002年郑州市土地利用现状数据，根据每一组时段获取不同的年均土地利用转移概率矩阵，以每个年均转移概率为预测方案，利用马尔科夫模型预测未来郑州市土地利用结构，进行不同发展模式下的耕地保有量预测。研究结果表明：随着城市化的不断发展，城市等建设用地面积不断增加，耕地面积将不断减少。到2015年，耕地保护模式下耕地保有量达到43 957.84 hm2，普通发展模式下耕地保有量分别达到38 703.89 hm2和30 491.87 hm2，快速城市化发展模式下耕地保有量为22 455.74 hm2。

Abstract:

This paper took Landsat TM/ETM images and SPOT-5 images of Zhengzhou City in 1988, 1997, 2000 and 2002 as the data sources of land use structure, established the annual mean transition probability matrixes of land use structure in different periods, then predicated and decided the future land use structures and the amounts of cultivated land reserved by using Markov Model and multi-project method. The results showed that: with the development of urbanization, the area of urban constructive land would increased while the area of cultivated land would decrease continuously. In 2015 the amount of cultivated land reserved was 43 957.84 hm2 under the cultivated land preservation model, but 38 703.89 hm2, 30 491.87 hm2 under the normal development model, and 22 455.74 hm2 under the rapid urbanization model, respectively.